Discussion Paper Series 2010-E-9

An Empirical Analysis of Equity Market Expectations in the Recent Financial Turmoil Using Implied Moments and Jump Diffusion Processes

Yoshihiko Sugihara, Nobuyuki Oda

This paper investigates market expectations of future equity prices using the probability distribution and the moments implied in equity option prices. We first conduct, without assuming a particular model, a nonparametric analysis of the development of market expectations in four major markets during the financial turmoil following the summer of 2007. We then conduct a parametric analysis to reconsider these expectations from the perspective of a stochastic process, assuming jump diffusion processes that configure the implied distribution. These analyses reveal that the possibility of discontinuous price jumps in each country increased downwards during the recent financial turmoil, while volatilities determining the dispersion of continuous price changes surged. Viewing the results from the perspective of a probability distribution, we find that kurtosis and the absolute value of skewness declined, while variance dramatically increased.

Keywords: implied distribution; implied moment; jump diffusion process; nonparametric method; GMM; characteristic function GMM

Views expressed in the paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Bank of Japan or Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies.

Copyright © 2010 Bank of Japan All Rights Reserved.

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