Monetary and Economic Studies is published, in principle four times a year, by the Bank of Japan's Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies (IMES). In line with IMES policy, the publication seeks to provide information on monetary and economic issues to the general public. Articles include research achievements by the staff and visiting scholars, and selected works from the proceedings of conferences sponsored by IMES.

Views expressed in Monetary and Economic Studies are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Bank of Japan or IMES.

INDEX Vol.21, No.4/ December 2003 Vol.21, No.3 / October 2003 Vol.21, No.2 / August 2003 Vol.21, No.1 / February 2003 * Files are best viewed with the newest version of Adobe Reader.

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Vol.21, No.4 / December 2003

Author(s)	Title/Key words	Click to download (PDF files)
David Andolfatto	Monetary Implications of the Hayashi-Prescott Hypothesis for Japan /Productivity slowdown; Money multiplier; Monetary policy; Liquidity trap	179KB
Hiroshi Fujiki and Kiyoshi Watanabe	Effects of External Debt on Domestic Resource Allocation in a Small Open Economy with Limited Access to the World Capital Market /External debt; Two-sector economic models	273KB
Sachiko Kuroda and Isamu Yamamoto	The Impact of Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity on the Unemployment Rate: Quantitative Evidence from Japan /Downward nominal wage rigidity; Unemployment rate; Inflation rate; Monetary policy; General equilibrium model with downward nominal wage rigidity	252KB
Eisaku Ide	Policy Debates on Public Finance between the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan from 1930 to 1936 /Direct underwriting of deficit-financing bonds by the BOJ (BOJ underwriting); Joint Research Committee; Currency system; Market operation by selling government bonds; Continuing expenditure; Deferred fiscal burden	143KB

* Click the title to obtain an abstract of the thesis

Vol.21, No.3 / October 2003

Author(s)	Title/Key words	Click to download (PDF files)
Makoto Saito and Shigenori Shiratsuka	Precautionary Motives versus Waiting Options: Evidence from Aggregate Household Saving in Japan /Precautionary savings; Waiting options; Flexibility; Risks; Resolution of uncertainty	185KB
Keiko Murata	Precautionary Savings and Income Uncertainty: Evidence from Japanese Micro Data /Precautionary savings; Uncertainty; Income risks; Uncertainty over public pension benefits; Risk-sharing; Individual data; Longitudinal data	234KB
Akira Otani, Shigenori Shiratsuka, and Toyoichiro Shirota	The Decline in the Exchange Rate Pass-Through: Evidence from Japanese Import Prices /Exchange rate pass-through; Pricing-to-market; Import structure; Expenditure-switching effect; Firms' sourcing decision	245KB
Tatsuya Ishikawa, Yasuhiro Yamai, and Akira Ieda	On the Risk Capital Framework of Financial Institutions /Risk capital; Risk management; Capital structure; Capital budgeting; Risk-adjusted rate of return; Capital allocation; Deadweight cost	178KB

* Click the title to obtain an abstract of the thesis

Vol.21, No.2 / August 2003

Author(s)	Title/Key words	Click to download (PDF files)
Sachiko Kuroda and Isamu Yamamoto	Are Japanese Nominal Wages Downwardly Rigid? (Part I): Examinations of Nominal Wage Change Distributions /Downward nominal wage rigidity; Inflation rate; Monetary policy; Longitudinal data; Nominal wage change distributions	219KB
Sachiko Kuroda and Isamu Yamamoto	Are Japanese Nominal Wages Downwardly Rigid? (Part II): Examinations Using a Friction Model /Downward nominal wage rigidity; Inflation rate; Monetary policy; Longitudinal data; Measurement errors; Friction model; Simulated maximum likelihood	276KB
Toshitaka Sekine, Keiichiro Kobayashi, and Yumi Saita	Forbearance Lending: The Case of Japanese Firms /Forbearance lending; Nonperforming loan; Dynamic GMM	196KB
Yasuo Hirose and Koichiro Kamada	A New Technique for Simultaneous Estimation of Potential Output and the Phillips Curve /Potential output; Phillips curve; Hodrick-Prescott filter	181KB
Masahiro Fukuhara and Yasufumi Saruwatari	An Analysis of Contagion in Emerging Currency Markets Using Multivariate Extreme Value Theory /Contagion; Multivariate extreme value theory; Emerging market currencies	168KB

* Click the title to obtain an abstract of the thesis

Vol.21, No.1 / February 2003

Author(s)	Title/Key words	Click to download (PDF files)
Kyungho Jang and Masao Ogaki	The Effects of Japanese Monetary Policy Shocks on Exchange Rates: A Structural Vector Error Correction Model Approach /Vector error correction model; Impulse response; Monetary policy shock; Cointegration; Identification; Long-run restriction	247KB
Toshiaki Watanabe	Measuring Business Cycle Turning Points in Japan with a Dynamic Markov Switching Factor Model /Business cycles; Factor model; Gibbs sampling; Marginal likelihood; Markov switching; Particle filter	268KB
Sachiko Kuroda	Analysis of Changes in Japan's Unemployment Rate Using Gross Flow Data /Unemployment rate; Flow data analysis; Discouraged worker effect; Added worker effect; Price-level projections using Phillips curve	286KB
Tomiyuki Kitamura and Ryoji Koike	The Effectiveness of Forecasting Methods Using Multiple Information Variables /Information variable; Multivariate forecast; Out-of-sample forecast; Forecast combination	436KB

* Click the title to obtain an abstract of the thesis

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