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The Zero Bound in an Open Economy: A Foolproof Way of Escaping from a Liquidity Trap
Lars E. O. Svensson
The paper examines the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in an open economy with and without a binding zero bound on nominal interest rates. In particular, a foolproof way of escaping from a liquidity trap is suggested, consisting of a price-level target path, a devaluation of the currency and a temporary exchange rate peg, which is later abandoned in favor of price-level or inflation targeting when the price-level target has been reached. This will jump-start the economy and escape deflation by a real depreciation of the domestic currency, a lower long real interest rate, and increased inflation expectations. The abandonment of the exchange-rate peg and the shift to price-level or inflation targeting will avoid the risk of overheating. Some conclusions for Japan are included.
Key words: Deflation; Liquidity trap; Nominal interest rates
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 2001 Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan
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